Can Fujian Achieve Carbon Peak and Pollutant Reduction Targets before 2030? Case Study of 3E System in Southeastern China Based on System Dynamics

Fujian Province has entered the golden period of industrialization and rapid economic development, its economy society are undergoing significant changes. An unreasonable industrial structure growth energy consumption will result in a high pressure carbon peak environmental pollution 2030. How to improve efficiency, control pollution, achieve by 2030 while ensuring become focus attention researchers relevant policymakers. A disadvantage current 3E (Economy–Energy–Environment) system is that it no quantitative basis for selection variables combined analysis emissions which not conducive paying process achieving peak. Based on STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts Regression Population, Affluence, Technology) model results Province, this paper established simulate three development scenarios explored EKC (Environmental Kuznets Curve). The showed population, structure, were main influencing factors Province. simulation scenario (scenario one) sustainable, pollutant reduction cannot be achieved more stringent three) was required schedule. trend emission curve different from pollution. common inverted “U” shape, had shapes “N”, “M,” “U”. This study can provide method selecting new establishing model, reference develop subsequent policies